Tuvan Gumrukcu

ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkey will increase its military support to the internationally recognized government of Libya if necessary and will evaluate ground, air and marine options, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday, after the two signed a military cooperation accord last month.

Turkey backs Fayez al-Serraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya, which has been torn by factional conflict since 2011, and has already sent military supplies to the GNA despite a United Nations arms embargo, according to a report by U.N. experts seen by Reuters last month.

Turkey has also said it could deploy troops to Libya if the GNA makes such a request. The GNA has been fighting a months-long offensive by Khalifa Haftar’s forces based in the east of the country. Haftar’s forces have received support from Russia, Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

Speaking in the northern province of Kocaeli, Erdogan said Turkey had recently provided “very serious” support to the GNA, adding Libya was a country Turkey would support “with its life”.

“They are supporting an illegal warlord, who is the pawn of certain nations, instead of the U.N.-recognized government,” Erdogan said, in an apparent reference to Haftar and the countries which support him.

“If necessary, we will increase the military aspect of our support to Libya, and evaluate all our options, from the ground, air and sea,” he said.

Speaking before Erdogan, Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said Turkey will stand by Libya’s government until peace, stability and security are established in the country.

MARITIME ACCORD

Last month, Turkey and the GNA signed an accord to boost military cooperation and a separate deal on maritime boundaries, which has enraged Greece. Ankara and Athens have been at odds over hydrocarbon resources off the coast of the divided island of Cyprus.

While Greece has said the accord violates international law, Turkey has rejected those accusations, saying it aims to protect its rights in the eastern Mediterranean. On Sunday, Erdogan said Turkey will “absolutely” not turn back from its agreements with Libya.

“Nobody should come to us with attempts to exclude us, trap us in our own shores or steal our economic interests,” Erdogan said. “We have no intention of starting conflicts with anyone for no reason, or robbing anyone of their rights,” he said.

“Those who oppose us have no sense of rights, law, justice, ethics or mercy,” Erdogan said, referring to Greece, Israel and Egypt, who have opposed the maritime accord.

In an interview with Greek daily To Vima on Sunday, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the accord with Libya was in line with international law, adding Ankara may consider granting exploration licenses in areas determined by Turkey and Libya.

“It would be the exercise of our sovereign rights in our continental shelf in the region,” Cavusoglu said. “The exercise of our sovereign rights also and naturally includes our right to deploy research vessels in the area,” he was cited as saying.

In a first reaction from the United States on the agreement, a senior State Department official said the maritime accord was “unhelpful” and “provocative”.

Responding to those comments, Turkey’s Communications Director Fahrettin Altun said on Sunday the United States refused to understand Turkey’s legitimate security concerns.

“It is neither ‘provocative’ nor ‘unconstructive’ as some US officials are claiming,” Altun said on Twitter. “Those who dare criticize Turkey should take a look at years of provocative actions by Greece and other regional states. We will never accept a fait accompli over our maritime borders!” he added.

Dec 20, 2019 @ 13:04 Egypt vs Turkey in Libya

A consignment of Egyptian T-72 tanks and APCs arrived in Libya on Thursday, Dec. 19, to bolster Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), which had just broken through to the southern outskirts of Tripoli. This consignment was personally ordered by Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi, DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources reveal, along with instructions to a number of Egyptian air force squadrons to stand ready to support Haftar’s push to take the capital from the UN-recognized Government of National Accord.

El-Sisi took those steps in response to the Erdogan government’s reported plan to send over a volunteer force from the Turkish Muslim Brotherhood (SADAT) to help the GNA resist Haftar’s push into Tripoli. SADAT consists of former Al Qaeda and ISIS jihadists recruited in Syria by the Turkish MIT intelligence agency. Our sources add that a number of Hamas activists hosted by Turkey have trained with these units.
It was in reference to this Turkish intervention in the Tripoli battle that El-Sisi declared this week: “The Libyan government has been held hostage by terrorist militias in the capital, Tripoli.”

This week, the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood convinced the Tripoli government to formally apply to Ankara for military assistance to repel the Haftar advance.

Turkish military aid to the GNA thus far consists of 3,000 army “advisers” and a steady supply of weapons systems, including anti-tank rockets and drones.

Haftar’s army is solidly backed by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia. The Egyptians provide intelligence, weapons and ammo; the Russians have deployed thousands of mercenaries, most from the Wagner Group contractors, some transferred from Syria to Libya; and the UAE recently supplied the Haftar force with a small squadron of six US-made Archangel ISR planes. These aircraft usually provide  police forces on the ground with surveillance and back-up fire. The Haftar army has turned them into bombers.
If Turkey goes through with its plan to deploy Muslim Brotherhood volunteers to Libya, The Egyptian air force will go into action for a showdown against Turkish intervention.

The fast-deteriorating situation was set in motion last week, when Trump ordered U.S. troops in northern Syria to step aside, clearing the way for an attack by Turkey, which regards the Kurds as terrorists. Since 2014, the Kurds have fought alongside the U.S. in defeating the Islamic State in Syria, and Trump’s move was decried at home and abroad as a betrayal of an ally. Over the past five days, Turkish troops and their allies have pushed their way into northern towns and villages, clashing with the Kurdish fighters over a stretch of 200 kilometers (125 miles). The offensive has displaced at least 130,000 people. On Sunday, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said all American troops will withdraw from northern Syria because of the increasing danger of getting caught in the crossfire.

by Geoffrey Grider October 13, 2019

The Kurdish fighters in Syria had few options after the United States abandoned them, and it had been anticipated they would turn to Assad’s government for support.

Here’s a little Bible Prophecy 101 for you: The Old Testament prophets all tell us that Syria in general is a major end times player, with Damascus being mentioned repeatedly in particular and singled out for ultimate destruction during the Battle of Armageddon just prior to the Second Coming. Also we read out Russia, China, Iran and Turkey as playing major roles. Care to hazard a guess which world superpower is absent from your end times scorecard? You guess it, it’s the most powerful nation on the face of the Earth who is looking more and more like its about to be put out to pasture. Who am I talking about? Us, the United States of America. We don’t even get a passing mention, that should tell you how great our fall from power is about to be.

“The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap. The cities of Aroer are forsaken: they shall be for flocks, which shall lie down, and none shall make them afraid. The fortress also shall cease from Ephraim, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the remnant of Syria: they shall be as the glory of the children of Israel, saith the LORD of hosts.” Isaiah 17:1-3 (KJV)

As the slaughter in Syria intensifies, with over 130,000 persons already displaced in the first 5 days of fighting, it is becoming obvious that Turkey is not there to “defend its borders’ as they had said. They are in Syria to take control of the northern part of it, which coincidentally is right near where the Golan Heights is located as well. Israel is the center of bible prophecy, and it doesn’t take a prophet to tell you that if Turkey is allowed to continue then Israel will be forced to defend themselves as well.

ISIS Affiliates Break Free From Camp in Syria

FROM THE AP: Syria’s Kurds said Syrian government forces agreed Sunday to help them fend off Turkey’s invasion — a major shift in alliances that came after President Donald Trump ordered all U.S. troops withdrawn from the northern border area amid the rapidly deepening chaos.

The shift could lead to clashes between Turkey and Syria and raises the specter of a resurgent Islamic State group as the U.S. relinquishes any remaining influence in northern Syria to President Bashar Assad and his chief backer, Russia.

Adding to the turmoil Sunday, hundreds of Islamic State families and supporters escaped from a holding camp in Syria amid the fighting between Turkish forces and the Kurds.

The fast-deteriorating situation was set in motion last week, when Trump ordered U.S. troops in northern Syria to step aside, clearing the way for an attack by Turkey, which regards the Kurds as terrorists. Since 2014, the Kurds have fought alongside the U.S. in defeating the Islamic State in Syria, and Trump’s move was decried at home and abroad as a betrayal of an ally.

Over the past five days, Turkish troops and their allies have pushed their way into northern towns and villages, clashing with the Kurdish fighters over a stretch of 200 kilometers (125 miles). The offensive has displaced at least 130,000 people.

On Sunday, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said all American troops will withdraw from northern Syria because of the increasing danger of getting caught in the crossfire.

“We have American forces likely caught between two opposing advancing armies, and it’s a very untenable situation,” he said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” He did not say how many would withdraw or where they would go but that they represent most of the 1,000 U.S. troops in Syria.

The peril to American forces was illustrated on Friday, when a small number of U.S. troops came under Turkish artillery fire at an observation post in the north. No Americans were hurt. Esper said it was unclear whether that was an accident.

Trump, in a tweet, said: “Very smart not to be involved in the intense fighting along the Turkish Border, for a change. Those that mistakenly got us into the Middle East Wars are still pushing to fight. They have no idea what a bad decision they have made.”

Later in the day Sunday, Kurdish officials announced they will work with the Syrian government to fend off the Turkish invasion, deploying side by side along the border. Syrian TV said government troops were moving to the north to confront the Turkish invasion but gave no details.

The Kurdish fighters had few options after the United States abandoned them, and it had been anticipated they would turn to Assad’s government for support.

A return by Assad’s forces to the region where Syrian Kurds have built up autonomy in the north would be a major shift in Syria’s long-running civil war, further cementing Assad’s hold over the ravaged country.

It would also mean that U.S. troops no longer have a presence in an area where Russia and Iranian-backed militias now have a role. It was not clear what Russia’s role was in cementing the agreement. But Russian officials have been mediating low-level talks between the Kurds and Damascus. Syria is allied with Russia, and Turkey, though it is a NATO member, has drawn close to Moscow in recent years under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. READ MORE

Turkey’s Syria offensive: Erdogan defiant in response to US threats

The US military is warning Turkey that its incursion into Syria could jeopardize progress in defeating the so-called “Islamic State.” Kurdish-led forces in the region say they can’t keep ISIS prisoners contained and hold back the Turkish military. The US defense department is calling on its NATO ally to halt operations, and US President Trump has threatened economic sanctions. There has already been one explosion near an outpost of US Special Forces. And the UN says 100,000 civilians have fled their homes since the offensive began three days ago.

By Burak Bekdil September 26, 2019

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,300, September 26, 2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: At testing times, Turkey’s Islamist strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has always sought refuge at home, taking pleasure in his massive popularity. But after 17 consecutive years in power, having won every election in which he ran, Turkey’s self-declared Sultan is showing signs of fatigue – and his popularity may be wearing thin.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan behaves like a cornered cat when it comes to regional politics: he acts savagely and erratically, lashing out at both real and imagined enemies. His adversaries are the EU (Italy, France, Cyprus, and Greece in particular, due to a row over hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean), the US, and Israel. In neighboring Syria he is threatening a bloody military assault on the Kurds. He is explicitly unwanted in fellow Muslim countries like Egypt, Lebanon, and the UAE due to his rigid support for Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. In Libya he is waging a proxy war against secular Muslims who want to oust an Islamist government in Tripoli.

At times like these, Erdoğan has always sought refuge at home, taking pleasure in his massive popularity. But after 17 consecutive years in power, having won every election, Turkey’s Islamist strongman is showing signs of fatigue. And as the country continues to fail both economically and politically, Erdoğan may no longer be invincible.

“He who wins Istanbul wins Turkey” is Erdoğan’s own dictum. He may be right: Istanbul is home to nearly 15% of Turkey’s 57 million voters and accounts for 31% of its GDP. Erdoğan launched his political journey by being elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994.

On March 31, a little-known opposition candidate, Ekrem Imamoğlu, won Istanbul (where more than 11 million voters are registered) by a margin of 13,000 votes. Erdoğan challenged the result and demanded a new vote – only to lose, the second time, by a margin of 800,000. He lost both Istanbul and Ankara after 25 years of Islamist rule.

Erdoğan’s bitter defeat came at a time of a rise in anti-government protests, mostly focused on environmental issues. “The wave of peaceful demonstrations – the country’s largest since the 2013 Gezi Park rallies – suggests a newfound vitality among the opposition, with potentially deep implications for Turkey’s democracy,” wrote Soner Cağaptay and Deniz Yüksel for the Washington Institute. “This consolidation of power, coupled with frequent crackdowns on protestors, left many in the opposition disheartened.”

With 4.7 million jobless and unemployment continuing to soar, 15% inflation, and high borrowing rates, Turkey’s economy is not functioning well. The national currency, the lira, has been volatile ever since a serious crisis last year.

Erdoğan is at war with Turkey’s 15 million or so Kurds. He recently appointed government trustees to three overwhelmingly Kurdish provinces in southern Turkey, escalating tensions between Ankara and the Kurdish southeast and further undermining Turkey’s already problematic democratic outlook.

It would be ironic if Erdoğan were to lose power after his long stretch of Islamist rule. Necmettin Erbakan, whom Erdoğan often referred to as “master,” became Turkey’s first Islamist PM in 1995 when he won 21% of the national vote and signed a coalition agreement with a center-right party. Erbakan’s political vision featured a rigid Islamism based on an anti-Western, anti-EU isolationist rhetoric known as “the National View” – a bizarre policy blend deeply hated by the (then) strong military top brass. Wisely, Erdoğan parted ways with his “master” and burst onto the political stage with a less rigid Islamist policy calculus. His Islamism was to be compatible with Western democratic culture and capitalism, or so he claimed. In a 2000 interview he said “he had thrown away the shirt called “National View.”

Erdoğan and his top brass – whom Erbakan called “our naughty boys” for their departure from the straight and narrow – held that a more pro-Western rhetoric had to be showcased if Islamists wanted to come to power. This was a political struggle between the Islamist conservative and reformist wings.

Erdoğan’s second-in-command was his long-time comrade Abdullah Gül. Through a controversial parliamentary vote in 2007, Gül became president with Erdoğan, who was PM at the time. Erdoğan and Gül thus ran the show together, à la Putin and Medvedev. In 2009, Erdoğan appointed Ahmet Davutoğlu, a Gül confidante, as FM, and, in 2014, as PM. The third man in Erdoğan’s hall of fame was brilliant economist Ali Babacan, who became finance minister.

All three men grew disillusioned with Erdoğan’s increasingly despotic one-man approach to governance. Now in political exile, they are showing signs of making a comeback. Last year, this prospect was just another tidbit on the Ankara political grapevine, but it has gone beyond mere speculation. Gül, Davutoğlu, and Babacan are working day and night to formally launch their version of a market-friendly, pro-Western, pro-democracy political party (or two parties).

Erdoğan has threatened that they will pay a high price for their “treason” and claimed that a new party (or parties) would mean “dividing the umma.” If launched, this would be the sixth Islamist party in Turkey’s political history, with Erdoğan’s emerging as the only successful experiment.

How popular the “new party” will be (to use the phrase of Turkish observers) is anyone guess. Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party, supported by the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party, appears to be able to give him the 50% plus one vote he needs to be reelected in the presidential elections of 2023. The “new party” will try to challenge him directly, with the aim of winning a share of his conservative voter base. Observers rightly think the “new party” will appeal more to “intellectual conservatives” whereas Erdoğan’s party will continue to target less educated Islamists.

“Even if the ‘new party’ won [only] a couple of percentage points from Erdoğan, it may be the beginning of the end for him,” an Erdoğan confidante admitted.