Category Archive: Global Economy

Mar 29

Union for the Mediterranean: Revives to meet the challenges of a New Middle East

The diffusion of innovations, resulting from the current and continuously evolving informational revolution has directly impacted socio-cultural living standards, and has influenced structural-sectoral shifts in the economy. These ‘shifts’ can be smooth or can create crisis and renewal, a process which Joseph Alois Schumpeter (8 February 1883 – 8 January 1950) an Austrian-American economist and political scientist called, “creative destruction.”

The present popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa give witness to the power of knowledge and technology and diffusion within a growing globalized society and its tremendous influence these have also, on political change.

Ten years ago, PM Benjamin Netanyahu in a speech at CPAC February 17, 2001 at the Ronald Reagan banquet, astutely observed and predicted, “It is the information revolution that is beginning to collapse the totalitarian regimes of our time. This is the first real change that is producing not only economic changes, not only social changes, but enormously important political changes. Because up to now, technology has really been at the service of dictatorships…

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“The greatest service that dictatorships have received in the 20th century was this thing, the microphone. And the microphone would give a single dictator the ability to control the minds and hearts of millions of people, to tell them who is the enemy, who are the well poisoners of the earth, who are the cancer that has to be excised. That’s how Israel was referred to in the Middle East. That’s how the Jewish people were referred to in the heart of Europe by the Nazis. It is the power of the microphone, the power of mass communications, controlled from above, that was the greatest threat to freedom in the 20th century.”

“We are witnessing the breakup of that monolithic control. Because you now have, or very soon will have, millions of people, tens of millions, hundreds of millions of people, ultimately billions of people, who can access networks of information and communication from below, who can become their own broadcasters, or narrowcasters and that is fundamentally eroding the power of dictatorships.”

The Biblical Prophet Daniel received the prophecy over 2500 years ago that there would be a remarkable increase in knowledge and technology in the last days:

“But you, Daniel, shut up the words and seal the book, until the time of the end. Many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall increase.” Daniel 12:4

Daniel also received prophecy about the empires of the world (Daniel Ch. 2 and 7) and he prophesied that the last world empire to rule before the Messiah’s everlasting reign would be a (revived) Roman empire. Prophecy teacher Jack Kelley writes this warning in his study of Daniel’s prophecy of 70 weeks, “A ruler who will come from the territory of the old Roman Empire will confirm a 7 year covenant with Israel that permits them to build a Temple and re-instate their Old Covenant worship system. 3 1/2 years later he will violate the covenant by setting up an abomination that causes the Temple to become desolate, putting an end to their worship. This abomination brings the wrath of God down upon him and he will be destroyed.”

This last Gentile empire to rule is still future. It will be the empire of the Antichrist.

Thousands of years ago Daniel prophesied that the information revolution would herald or, occur simultaneously with a future world empire coming from a “revived” or “reborn” Roman Empire, like the one in existence at the time of Christ.

Dr. David Reagan wrote in his article entitled, Europe In Bible Prophecy:

“The most important prophetic development of the 20th Century was the regathering of the Jewish people to their historic homeland in the Middle East, resulting in the creation of the state of Israel on May 14, 1948. The second most important development was the formation of a European confederation known as The European Union. Both of these momentous historical events point to the fact that we are living in the end times, right on the threshold of the Tribulation and the Lord’s return.”

French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed to establish a ‘Mediterranean Union’ as part of his presidential campaign in 2007. The idea was anteceded by the Barcelona Process, also known as the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership.The aim of the 1995 Barcelona Declaration initiative is stated as “turning the Mediterranean basin into an area of dialogue, exchange and cooperation guaranteeing peace, stability and prosperity.” Nicolas Sarkozy envisioned this Union to follow the model of the European Union with a shared judicial area and common institutions, and as a forum for dialogue between Israel and its Arab Neighbors. Turkey opposed the idea initially, skeptical that membership of the Mediterranean Union was being offered to them as an alternative to full accession to the EU. (Libya was also very hesitant) On the 13th of July, 2008 in Paris, France, the ‘Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean‘‚ was launched according to the Joint Declaration adopted at the heads of state and Government.

For the past 2 years the Union for the Mediterranean has not progressed as expected due to stalemates with the Israel-Arab peace process and cancelling of summits. This may soon change. As the revolts in North Africa, and Arab nations along the Mediterranean and in the Middle East proceed to overturn political systems, vacant areas of political and economic structure are left in need of leadership and direction. The EU recognizes this, and has plans to plant roots of ‘deep democracy‘  in the region. It is  interesting to this writer, who has been following the evolution of the Mediterranean Union – UfM since its inception, to see it now reviving in such a way with a framework in place that could possibly meet the needs and challenges of the ‘New Middle East.’ However, it is precisely for this reason – the fact that it is practical, makes sense, and involves Israel – that is concerning; a reviving roman empire signals the end of days, and the time to be on the alert.

Upon reviewing a map of the Union for the Mediterranean nations in comparison with a map of the Roman empire at or about the time of Christ 2000 years ago, those who study bible prophecy can not help but to be amazed at the similarity.

One possible obstacle holding back full implementation of the emergence of the revived Roman Empire, is competition from another set of nations vying for world power, wealth and domination.
Caroline Glick in her recent article entitled, The New Middle East points out that the Iranian regime are the main benefactors of the New Middle East that is taking shape due to long-developed ties and connections with opposition figures that give the Iranians the ability to influence the policies of post-revolutionary allied regimes. She predicts a very dark future should there be an Iranian takeover:

“If the mullahs aren’t overthrown, the New Middle East will be a very dark and dangerous place.”

Caroline Glick mentioned 4 nations that are named in the bible in future prophecies. She pointed out that Russia‘s (Natural Gas/Energy) Gazprom announcement to sell Syria the Yakhont supersonic anti-ship cruise missile was a testament to Iran’s rising regional power and the US’s loss of power – an important fact considering that for the EU empire to rise, the West would logically, decline from its former super-power status.

Glick also mentions the growing alliance between Russia and Turkey, “Russia’s announcement that it sides with Iran’s ally Turkey in its support for reducing UN Security Council sanctions against Iran indicates that the US no longer has the regional posture necessary to contain Iran on the international stage.”

This ‘obstacle’ of competive nations to a revived Roman empire may possibly be removed by the fulfillment of the Isaiah 17:1,14; Jeremiah 49:23-27; Amos 1:3-5; Zechariah 9:1-8 prophecy against Damascus,Syria and the Ezekiel 38 and 39 prophecy of the Gog Magog war; a Russian (Magog) and Iran (Persia) led coalition of muslim nations (Turkey (Meshech and Tubal/Gomer/Togarmah)  Libya (Put), Sudan/Ethiopia (Cush), who will attempt a doomed attack on Israel, greatly reducing their influence in the region.

Rumors of war” and rumors of  ‘peace and security‘ seem to be the prevalent themes of the day.

In closing, the Bible warns of a ‘creative destruction’ of sorts resulting from the advances of man-kind in the realms of peace-making via the emergence of a union set to undermine the sovereignty of nations in the guise of ‘democracy.’ Israel is unlike any other nation in the world as it can not be contained by such a global union that will eventually be led by the Antichrist.

Israel is like a banner to the world that the Word of God is the truth, and Jerusalem as prophesied by Zechariah will be a burdensome stone to all the nations who attempt division or conquest of her.

 The conflict in the Middle East that brings Israel and her neighbors to the decision table is rooted in the spiritual realm and no corruptible man-made plan can bring lasting peace and security based upon unscriptural and dishonest means or motives. It is the confirming of the (false) peace treaty that initiates the time of Jacob’s trouble, and judgment upon all the earth.


“Now as to the times and the epochs, brethren, you have no need of anything to be written to you. For you yourselves know full well that the day of the Lord will come just like a thief in the night. While they are saying, “Peace and safety!” then destruction will come upon them suddenly like labor pains upon a woman with child, and they will not escape. But you, brethren, are not in darkness, that the day would overtake you like a thief.” 1 Thessalonians 5:1-4

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/29/union-for-the-mediterranean-revives-to-meet-the-challenges-of-a-new-middle-east/

Mar 24

Saudi Arabia And China Team Up To Build A Gigantic New Oil Refinery – Is This The Beginning Of The End For The Petrodollar?

The largest oil exporter in the Middle East has teamed up with the second largest consumer of oil in the world (China) to build a gigantic new oil refinery and the mainstream media in the United States has barely even noticed it. This mammoth new refinery is scheduled to be fully operational in the Red Sea port city of Yanbu by 2014. Over the past several years, China has sought to aggressively expand trade with Saudi Arabia, and China now actually imports more oil from Saudi Arabia than the United States does. In February, China imported 1.39 million barrels of oil per day from Saudi Arabia. That was 39 percent higher than last February. So why is this important? Well, back in 1973 the United States and Saudi Arabia agreed that all oil sold by Saudi Arabia would be denominated in U.S. dollars. This petrodollar system was adopted by almost the entire world and it has had great benefits for the U.S. economy. But if China becomes Saudi Arabia’s most important trading partner, then why should Saudi Arabia continue to only sell oil in U.S. dollars? And if the petrodollar system collapses, what is that going to mean for the U.S. economy?

Those are very important questions, and they will be addressed later on in this article. First of all, let’s take a closer look at the agreement reached between Saudi Arabia and China recently.

The following is how the deal was described in a recent China Daily article….

In what Riyadh calls “the largest expansion by any oil company in the world”, Sinopec’s deal on Saturday with Saudi oil giant Aramco will allow a major oil refinery to become operational in the Red Sea port of Yanbu by 2014.

The $8.5 billion joint venture, which covers an area of about 5.2 million square meters, is already under construction. It will process 400,000 barrels of heavy crude oil per day. Aramco will hold a 62.5 percent stake in the plant while Sinopec will own the remaining 37.5 percent.

At a time when the U.S. is actually losing refining capacity, this is a stunning development.

Yet the U.S. press has been largely silent about this.

Very curious.

But China is not just doing deals with Saudi Arabia. China has also been striking deals with several other important oil producing nations. The following comes from a recent article by Gregg Laskoski….

China’s investment in oil infrastructure and refining capacity is unparalleled. And more importantly, it executes a consistent strategy of developing world-class refining facilities in partnership with OPEC suppliers. Such relationships mean economic leverage that could soon subordinate U.S. relations with the same countries.

Egypt is building its largest refinery ever with investment from China.

Shortly after the partnership with Egypt was announced, China signed a $23 billion agreement with Nigeria to construct three gasoline refineries and a fuel complex in Nigeria.

Essentially, China is running circles around the United States when it comes to locking up strategic oil supplies worldwide.

And all of these developments could have tremendous implications for the future of the petrodollar system.

If you are not familiar with the petrodollar system, it really is not that complicated. Basically, almost all of the oil in the world is traded in U.S. dollars. The origin of the petrodollar system was detailed in a recent article by Jerry Robinson….

In 1973, a deal was struck between Saudi Arabia and the United States in which every barrel of oil purchased from the Saudis would be denominated in U.S. dollars. Under this new arrangement, any country that sought to purchase oil from Saudi Arabia would be required to first exchange their own national currency for U.S. dollars. In exchange for Saudi Arabia’s willingness to denominate their oil sales exclusively in U.S. dollars, the United States offered weapons and protection of their oil fields from neighboring nations, including Israel.

By 1975, all of the OPEC nations had agreed to price their own oil supplies exclusively in U.S. dollars in exchange for weapons and military protection.

This petrodollar system, or more simply known as an “oil for dollars” system, created an immediate artificial demand for U.S. dollars around the globe. And of course, as global oil demand increased, so did the demand for U.S. dollars.

Once you understand the petrodollar system, it becomes much easier to understand why our politicians treat Saudi leaders with kid gloves. The U.S. government does not want to see anything happen that would jeopardize the status quo.

A recent article by Marin Katusa described some more of the benefits that the petrodollar system has had for the U.S. economy….

The “petrodollar” system was a brilliant political and economic move. It forced the world’s oil money to flow through the US Federal Reserve, creating ever-growing international demand for both US dollars and US debt, while essentially letting the US pretty much own the world’s oil for free, since oil’s value is denominated in a currency that America controls and prints. The petrodollar system spread beyond oil: the majority of international trade is done in US dollars. That means that from Russia to China, Brazil to South Korea, every country aims to maximize the US-dollar surplus garnered from its export trade to buy oil.

The US has reaped many rewards. As oil usage increased in the 1980s, demand for the US dollar rose with it, lifting the US economy to new heights. But even without economic success at home the US dollar would have soared, because the petrodollar system created consistent international demand for US dollars, which in turn gained in value. A strong US dollar allowed Americans to buy imported goods at a massive discount – the petrodollar system essentially creating a subsidy for US consumers at the expense of the rest of the world. Here, finally, the US hit on a downside: The availability of cheap imports hit the US manufacturing industry hard, and the disappearance of manufacturing jobs remains one of the biggest challenges in resurrecting the US economy today.

So what happens if the petrodollar system collapses?

Well, for one thing the value of the U.S. dollar would plummet big time.

U.S. consumers would suddenly find that all of those “cheap imported goods” would rise in price dramatically as would the price of gasoline.

If you think the price of gas is high now, you just wait until the petrodollar system collapses.

In addition, there would be much less of a demand for U.S. government debt since countries would not have so many excess U.S. dollars lying around.

So needless to say, the U.S. government really needs the petrodollar system to continue.

But in the end, it is Saudi Arabia that is holding the cards.

If Saudi Arabia chooses to sell oil in a currency other than the U.S. dollar, most of the rest of the oil producing countries in the Middle East would surely do the same rather quickly.

And we have already seen countries in other parts of the world start to move away from using the U.S. dollar in global trade.

For example, Russia and China have agreed to now use their own national currencies when trading with each other rather than the U.S. dollar.

That got virtually no attention in the U.S. media, but it really was a big deal when it was announced.

A recent article by Graham Summers summarized some of the other moves away from the U.S. dollar in international trade that we have seen recently….

Indeed, officials from China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa (the latest addition to the BRIC acronym, now to be called BRICS) recently met in southern China to discuss expanding the use of their own currencies in foreign trade (yet another move away from the US Dollar).

To recap:

  • China and Russia have removed the US      Dollar from their trade
  • China is rushing its trade agreement      with Brazil
  • China, Russia, Brazil, India, and now      South Africa are moving to trade more in their own currencies (not the US      Dollar)
  • Saudi Arabia is moving to formalize      trade with China and Russia
  • Singapore is moving to trade yuan

The trend here is obvious. The US Dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency is ending. The process will take time to unfold. But the Dollar will be finished as reserve currency within the next five years.

Yes, the days of the U.S. dollar being the primary reserve currency of the world are definitely numbered.

It will not happen overnight, but as the U.S. economy continues to get weaker it is inevitable that the rest of the world will continue to question why the U.S. dollar should automatically have such a dominant position in international trade.

Over the next few years, keep a close eye on Saudi Arabia.

When Saudi Arabia announces a move away from the petrodollar system, that will be a major trigger event for the global financial system and it will be a really, really bad sign for the U.S. economy.

The level of prosperity that we are enjoying today would not be possible without the petrodollar system. Once the petrodollar system collapses, a lot of our underlying economic vulnerabilities will be exposed and it will not be pretty.

Tough times are on the horizon. It is imperative that we all get informed and that we all get prepared.

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/24/saudi-arabia-and-china-team-up-to-build-a-gigantic-new-oil-refinery-is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-petrodollar/

Feb 28

USA Today: Some Experts Warning of Economic Devastation Ahead by 2014

Seems like reps in Wyoming are the only ones right now concerned enough to prepare in advance of any eventuality. If Rabbi Jonathan Cahn is right, however, central banks around the world will likely kick the can down the road just a little bit more, until it can be kicked no farther in 2015. See video following the article below …

By Adam Shell – “NEW YORK – Behind the mainstream Wall Street happy talk about more stable financial markets and an improving economy are grim warnings of tough times ahead from a small cadre of doomsayers who warn that the worst of the financial crisis is still to come.

Harry Dent, author of the new book The Great Crash Ahead, says another stock market crash is coming due to a bad ending to the global debt bubble. He has pulled back on his earlier prediction of a crash in 2012, as central banks around the world have been flooding markets with money, giving stocks an artificial short-term boost. But a crash is coming in 2013 or 2014, he warns. ‘This will be a repeat of 2008-09, only bigger, when it finally hits,’ Dent told USA TODAY.

Gerald Celente, a trend forecaster at The Trends Research Institute, says Americans should brace themselves for an ‘economic 9/11′ due to policymakers’ inability to solve the world’s financial and economic woes. The coming meltdown, he predicts, will lead to growing social unrest and anti-government sentiment, a U.S. dollar with far less purchasing power and more people out of work.

Celente won’t rule out another financial panic that could spark enough fear to cause a run on the nation’s banks by depositors. That risk could cause the government to invoke ‘economic martial law’ and call a ‘bank holiday’ and close banks as they did during the Great Depression.

‘We see some kind of threat of that magnitude,’ Celente, publisher of The Trends Journal newsletter, warned in an interview.”

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/02/28/usa-today-some-experts-warning-of-economic-devastation-ahead-by-2014/

Feb 04

666: Mark of the Beast Update

India’s ID plan: An end to its inept bureaucracy or an Orwellian nightmare?

Eric Randolph

Sceptics of eye scans have raised fears about identity theft, saying a good quality camera could capture an image of the iris. But for this man joining the UIN in Bhopal, India, recently, it was a scheme worth looking into.

NEW DELHI // A plan to provide each of India’s 1.2 billion citizens with a unique identification number has been praised as an essential programme to impose some efficiency on India’s infamously inept bureaucracy.

But its opponents have said it is ripe for abuse. The government could use it to spy on its citizens and criminals could steal the data and create false identities.

Since the plan was launched in mid-2010, about 110 million Indians have queued up at data-processing centres across the country to have their irises scanned and their fingerprints recorded.

The unique identification (UID) number that arrives in the post a couple of months later can then be used to apply for welfare benefits and set up a bank account, without the endless form-filling and bribe-giving, which often goes along with proving your existence in India.

Headed by the respected former chairman of IT giant Infosys, Nandan Nilekani, the scheme has been a model of unusual government efficiency.

But the programme is now under threat from the Home Ministry, which has its own biometric database.

It collects not only fingerprints and irises, but also sensitive information such as caste and religion, which it wants to use for security purposes.

A turf war between the Home Ministry and the UID Authority led to a compromise last week. The agencies agreed to share their data to avoid duplication. That allowed Mr Nilekani to collect another 400 million people on to his database. The government is providing more than US$1.5 billion (Dh5.5bn) to merge the databases.

The deal is a boon for the Home Ministry, since it has only registered about 8 million citizens on its National Population Register (NPR).

It is unclear how all this information will be stored and shared, but it has done nothing to allay the fears of activists who foresaw the UID scheme turning into an Orwellian nightmare that could target, rather than help, India’s poorest citizens.

“These schemes are changing the relationship between the citizen and the state,” said Usha Ramanathan, an independent legal researcher and an opponent of UID.

“In the current climate, many of the poor don’t want to be identified because they will be subject to harassment.”

The paranoia is not entirely misplaced. The NPR emerged out of a scheme in the early 1990s to identify illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. More than 40,000 Bengali-speakers were later deported within a three-year period.

Many fear that the new data will be similarly used by parties – such as the ultra-right-wing Shiv Sena in Mumbai – that want to identify and remove migrant labourers from other states.

UID supporters said these concerns could be addressed through legal protections, and should not overshadow its work in streamlining welfare delivery.

One of the UID programme’s main tasks will be to cut out the millions of “ghost workers” that exist only on paper and allow contractors to siphon off extra money from the government.

Harsh V Pant

Payments for programmes such as the employment guarantee scheme – which provides 100 days of work to every adult in rural areas – are already starting to bypass middle men and go straight into verified bank accounts.

It is also expected to provide a “portable identity” for internal migrants, who often find it impossible to open bank accounts or receive welfare benefits outside of their home state.

“In a country where so many people are moving for short-term work or long-term relocation, we have not had a method by which people can take their identity with them,” said Pronab Sen, principal adviser at the government’s planning commission.

“Providing these people with public services has always been a problem. That’s where the UID will be essential.”

But much of its success depends on untested methods and technology. There are immediate practical concerns, with technicians reporting widespread difficulties in reading the worn-down fingerprints of manual labourers and the cataract-blocked irises of elderly citizens. Experts also said that without a proper design, the scheme could prove far less secure than its proponents imagine.

“All it would take to steal someone’s biometric identity is a photograph taken with a high-resolution camera or a fingerprint off a glass,” said Sunil Abraham, of the Centre for internet and Security in Bangalore.

“And once your biometric identity has been compromised, there is no way of re-securing it without surgery.”

He points to the recent incident in which several thousand Israeli biometric identities were leaked on to the internet by Saudi hackers. Stolen identities could be used to frame individuals for crimes or set up bank accounts for money laundering.

“I can see a situation in which a black market for biometric identities emerges,” said Mr Abraham.

Many in parliament share these concerns. Last month, the standing committee on finance rejected a proposed bill that required certain legal protections for people in the UID database.

The committee concluded that the standards were drafted with “no clarity of purpose and leaving many things to be sorted out during the course of its implementation … [it has been] implemented in a directionless way with a lot of confusion”.

Mr Nilekani said he will assess the committee’s concerns. “We will review the security concerns in the next six to eight weeks,” he said last week.

But with trust in the government at an all-time low in India, he will have a lot of convincing to do before his opponents back down.

“Every attempt at regulation in this country has failed,” said Ms Ramanathan. “They say this data will not be abused, but how can we believe them?”

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/02/04/666-mark-of-the-beast-update/

Jan 26

US Food more Pricey and Will Continue to Rise

So far, during the presidency of Barack Obama, the price of a gallon of gasoline has jumped 83 percent, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

During the same period, the price of ground beef has gone up 24 percent and price of bacon has gone up 22 percent.

When Obama entered the White House in January 2009, the city average price for one gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was $1.79, according to the BLS. (The figures are in nominal dollars: not adjusted for inflation.) Five months later in June, unleaded gasoline was $2.26 per gallon, an increase of 26 percent. By December 2011, the price of regular unleaded gas per gallon was $3.28, an 83 percent increase from January 2009.

The price of unleaded gasoline never reached the 10-year high of $4.09 back in July 2008 under George W. Bush’s administration, but it did get close.

By May 2011, gas prices hit a high under the Obama administration at $3.93, about four percentage points away from the July 2008 high.

The U.S. city average retail price for one pound of 100 percent ground beef was $2.36 in January 2009. As of December 2011, that price had risen to $2.92—a 23.7 percent increase and a new peak.   (Ground beef prices have risen every month since November 2009 – 26 months of price increases.)

Whole wheat bread prices from January 2009 to December 2011 increased about five percent (5.02 percent) from $1.97 to $2.07. (The inflation rate in December 2011 was 3.0 percent.)

Among the first 36 months of Obama’s presidency, the last four (September, October, November, December) showed the average price of one pound of whole wheat bread hovering slightly above two dollars.

Other refrigerated items like ice cream and bacon have increased by substantial amounts.

Ice cream prices, for a half-gallon, were $4.44 in January 2009 and $5.25 in December 2011, an increase of 19.1 percent.

One pound of sliced bacon in January 2009 was $3.73 and in December 2011 had climbed  $4.55, an increase of 22 percent. The price hit a high in September 2011 at $4.82 per pound.

Whole milk prices averaged above three dollars 33 out of the 36 months since Obama took office. In January 2009, the price for one gallon of whole milk was $3.58; but by December 2011, milk prices had slightly declined less than one percent (0.28 percent) to $3.57 per gallon.

The average retail price of Grade A eggs per dozen from January 2009 to December 2011 increased by less than two percent (1.30 percent) from $1.85 to $1.87.

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/01/26/us-food-more-pricey-and-will-continue-to-rise/

Jan 15

Fitch warns of ‘cataclysmic’ euro collapse

The European Central Bank should ramp up its buying of troubled euro zone debt to support Italy and prevent a “cataclysmic” collapse of the euro, David Riley, the head of sovereign ratings for Fitch, has warned.

Speaking to investors as part of a European roadshow, Mr Riley said a collapse of the euro would be disastrous for the global economy, and while it is not Fitch’s baseline scenario, it could happen if Italy did not find a way out of its debt problems.

“The end of the euro would be cataclysmic. The euro is a reserve currency,” Mr Riley said overnight. “What would that do in terms of financial and political stability?”

“It is hard to believe the euro will survive if Italy does not make it through,” he said, adding that while many saw Italy as too politically and economically important to be allowed to fail, “one might also argue that it is too big to rescue.”

The warning pushed the euro down towards a 16-month low versus the US dollar.

Mr Riley urged the European Central Bank to abandon its current reluctance to scaling up its purchases of troubled euro zone debt such as Italy’s and drop its resistance to the bloc’s bailout fund, the EFSF, borrowing directly from it.

“Can the euro be saved without more active engagement from the ECB? Quite frankly we think no,” Mr Riley said, adding that the bank had plenty of scope to expand its balance sheet without unleashing a wave of inflation across the euro zone.

“Why not have the ECB come out and say ‘We are going to cap interest rates’, say ‘We are not going to allow interest rates to exceed 7 per cent’ or whatever level they see is the limit?.. Why not turn the EFSF into a bank so it can borrow from the ECB so it doesn’t have to go to the market?”

Greece the joker in the pack

Fitch has warned that the economic outlook for the euro zone has darkened further in recent months and has said there is a high chance it will downgrade Italy, Spain, Belgium, Ireland, Slovenia and Cyprus by one or two notches by the end of this month.

But unlike larger rival Standard & Poor’s, which has all but Greece on a downgrade warning and said France risks a two notch cut, Fitch has said it does not expect to strip Paris of its triple-A status for this year at least.

Still, Mr Riley cautioned the euro zone’s second-biggest economy was in a precarious position as the crisis rumbled on.

“France is the weakest AAA country in the euro zone,” he said, adding it had the additional burden of being the main country alongside Germany underpinning the euro zone’s bailout fund.

Speaking on the sidelines of the event, he also said that Germany’s robust finances meant it would require a serious escalation of the euro zone’s crisis to bring its triple A rating under threat.

Greece, meanwhile, remained a major threat for the euro zone.

Last year’s move to force investors to take losses on their Greek bonds had destroyed the pre-crisis assumption that no euro zone country would default, while the current debate on Greece potentially leaving the euro was forcing investors to fundamentally rethink their view of the single currency.

“Arguably Greece leaving the euro could be the beginning of the end for the euro,” Mr Riley said. “Greece is still the joker in the pack. It still has the potential to plunge the euro zone into crisis.”

But he reiterated that a euro split was not Fitch’s current expectation. “We don’t think Greece will leave the euro. The cost benefit analysis doesn’t add up,” Mr Riley said.

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/01/15/fitch-warns-of-cataclysmic-euro-collapse/

Jan 10

Global economy would collapse in 7 days if a major disaster struck the planet

January 7, 2012WORLD – The global economy could withstand widespread disruption from a natural disaster or attack by militants for only a week as governments and businesses are not sufficiently prepared to deal with unexpected events, a report by a respected think-tank said. Events such as the 2010 volcanic ash cloud, which grounded flights in Europe, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami and Thailand’s floods last year, have showed that key sectors and businesses can be severely affected if disruption to production or transport goes on for more than a week. “One week seems to be the maximum tolerance of the ‘just-in-time’ global economy,” said the report by Chatham House, the London-based policy institute for international affairs. The current fragile state of the world’s economy leaves it particularly vulnerable to unforeseen shocks. Up to 30 percent of developed countries’ gross domestic product could be directly threatened by crises, especially in the manufacturing and tourism sectors, according to the think-tank. It is estimated that the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Asia cost businesses $60 billion, or about 2 percent of East Asian GDP, the report said. After the Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis in March last year, global industrial production declined by 1.1 percent the following month, according to the World Bank. The 2010 volcanic ash cloud cost the European Union 5-10 billion euros and pushed some airlines and travel companies to the verge of bankruptcy. “I would like to think we can learn from those experiences and be more resilient for longer but it won’t happen unless governments and businesses are better prepared and put in place different supply chains which can be relied on when disasters strike,” said Alyson Warhurst, chief executive of UK-based risk analysis company Maplecroft. Costs can escalate quickly when transport or major production hubs are disrupted for more than a few days, which can in turn threaten food and water supplies and energy and communication networks, the report said. Climate change and water scarcity will only add to risks, putting even more pressure on infrastructure and resources. Experts have been warning governments over the past few years that they are not properly prepared to deal with national crises.

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/01/10/global-economy-would-collapse-in-7-days-if-a-major-disaster-struck-the-planet/

Dec 07

One Week to Save the Euro

PARIS: One way or another, this is crunch week for the euro. By the end of the EU summit on Friday, European voters and markets will know how their leaders plan to save the single currency bloc.

The outlines of a plan have begun to emerge, but details will be thrashed out over a perilous week of high-wire economic diplomacy, starting on Monday, when Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel comes back to Paris.

She and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have vowed to unveil proposed EU treaty changes to create what Merkel has dubbed a ‘European fiscal union with strict rules’ and the French leader calls ‘true economic government.’

If the proposed reforms are seen as a credible guarantee that eurozone governments will at last bring their deficits under control, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi has suggested ‘that other elements might follow’.

This has been taken as a signal the ECB might intervene to protect European banks from any credit crunch and to buy bonds to rein in soaring interest rates on government borrowing, perhaps acting in concert with the IMF.

Would that be enough to end the debt crisis and save the euro? Some expert observers think so, others fear it will be too little too late, and in any case between now and then many questions will have to be answered.”

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2011/12/07/one-week-to-save-the-euro/

Dec 03

Prepare for Financial Armageddon – Euro Collapse

Britian’s banks have been told to prepare for the end of the Eurozone and to be ready for financial armageddon. This news came as this weeks the world’s largest central banks launched a desparate bid to save the global economy by flooding the markets with cheap cash.

EU chiefs are warning that Europe had 10 days to solve their debt crisis or face catastrophe. To mask this emerging trouble even more world stock markets actually went up creating a false sense that all is okay.

If the Eurozone fails we will see the effects here in the US. We may end up facing a double dip depression or recession.

Stay tuned to this news as December progresses.

Keep looking up!

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2011/12/03/prepare-for-financial-armageddon-euro-collapse/

Dec 01

S&P Downgrades Global Banks

The global economy is all set to melt down completely in 2012. Europe and the Euro are history and the American debt situation is the worst it has ever been. Be prepared and ready for some tough times in the next few years. We are heading towards a global economy sooner than most people think!

Keep looking up!

“Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday cut its credit ratings for many of the world’s largest banks, including Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).

The move follows S&P’s shift, announced earlier this month, in the methods it uses for rating the banks.

Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Corp. each had their long-term credit rating downgraded a single notch to A- from A. Similar cuts were applied to JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS).

Dozens of other banks were also affected by S&P’s new criteria and many of the downgrades stemmed from the affected banks’ exposure to the European debt crisis. S&P cited weaker confidence in governments’ ability to bail out struggling banks.

The new criteria for rating banks comes in the wake of criticism leveled at all three major rating firms – Moody’s and Fitch’s are the other two — that they rubber stamped their highest ratings on investment products loaded with subprime mortgages in the years leading up to the financial crisis.” Read more.

U.S. Stock Futures Decline After S&P Cuts Banks’ Credit Ratings – “U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will end a two-day rally, after S&P cut credit ratings for lenders including Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc… ‘Banks are in a difficult position,’ Matt McCormick, a money manager at Cincinnati-based Bahl & Gaynor Inc., which oversees $4.1 billion, said in a telephone interview. ‘There are so many unknowns for the industry, including Europe. The reward is not worth the risk right now.’”

U.S. Outlook Cut to Negative by Fitch After Committee Fails – “The U.S. lost its last stable outlook from the three biggest credit-ranking companies after Fitch Ratings lowered the nation to negative following a congressional committee’s failure to agree on deficit cuts. Fitch’s outlook on the U.S., which it still assigns its top AAA grade, reflects ‘declining confidence that timely fiscal measures necessary to place U.S. public finances on a sustainable path will be forthcoming,’ making the probability of a downgrade greater than 50 percent over two years, the company said yesterday in a statement

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2011/12/01/sp-downgrades-global-banks/

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