Israel may face a new Iranian-Egyptian threat if presidential candidate Hisham El-Bastawisi winds his bid to succeed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, whose ouster he encouraged.

Backed by the left-wing Tagammu party, El-Bastawisi said on Saturday that building good relations with Iran would be one of his highest priorities. Israel already faces a northern “axis of evil” by the alliance between Iran, Syria and Lebanon.

El-Bastawisi also promised to revise the Camp David Accords to allow the army to increase an armed presence in the Sinai Peninsula, the Egyptian website Ahram reported.

El-Bastawisi is a prominent reformist judge who helped lead opposition for judiciary independence under the regime of Mubarak, who now is on trial for mass murder of demonstrators in last year’s popular uprising.

Regardless of the outcome of the Egyptian prudential elections later this month, the new Cairo regime is bound to be more anti-Israel than it was under Mubarak.

Muslim Brotherhood candidate Abdel Moneim Abul-Fotouh said in a televised debate that Israel is an “enemy country.” The other top candidate, former foreign minister and Arab League Chief Amr Moussa, said earlier this month, “The Camp David agreements do not exist anymore….The purpose of the agreement with Israel was to establish an independent Palestinian government, whereas today we are talking about an independent Palestinian state.”

The unity government backed by a majority of 94 (out of 120) which Binyamin Netanyahu formed Tuesday May 8, is not just the broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, but also the first with three former chiefs of staff at the helm. Two are also present (Ehud Barak) and former (Shaul Mofaz) defense ministers.  It was this feature which drew the most attention in Washington as the first reports of Netanyahu’s stunning U-turn away from an early election filtered through.
“He has pulled off another term in office without standing for election,” said one senior administration source, “and he’s done it seven months before Barack Obama faces the American voter.” A re-elected Obama will find the same Netanyahu sitting in the prime minister’s chair in Jerusalem as before – after reinventing himself as a long-life premier.

If he and his new senior partner, former opposition Kadima’s Shaul Mofaz, achieve the targets they have set themselves – especially electoral and government reforms by the end of 2012 – those reforms will enhance Netanyahu’s chances of winning the October 2013 elections. So that when Obama ends his second presidential term in late 2017, Netanyahu will be ending his third as prime minister or as head of state, depending on whether reform legislation merges the two functions.
debkafile’s Washington sources registered three assessments by authoritative US sources of the changes portended by the Israel’s unity government, especially their impact on a potential Israeli, American or combined attack on Iran’s nuclear program:

1. According to one school of thought, the introduction of Mofaz, former chief of staff and defense minister, will make the composition of the new unity government the most hawkish ever, considering that he will sit down alongside Defense Minister Barak and former chief of staff Moshe Yaalon, currently vice premier and Minister for Strategic Affairs. All three hold key cabinet posts. Another prominent Kadima member expecting an influential post in the cabinet or a Knesset panel chair is former Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter,.
The message to the Obama administration is clear: The vocal criticism leveled against Netanyahu’s capacity to make good on a military option against Iran by a small group of aggrieved former Israeli generals and ex-security chiefs in no way represents the view of the “entire Israeli security establishment” as it was presented. Heading the government today is a solid security elite fully capable of executing any decisions that may be necessary to pre-empt a nuclear Iran.
That is not to say that an Israeli attack on Iran is momentary, say these American sources, possibly even the reverse. They suggest that the new lineup may give Obama a few months’ space before getting down to a final decision on Iran.
2. The second school of thought within the Obama administration noted that while skipping over Iran, both Netanyahu and Mofaz made a point at the news conference launching their partnership in Jerusalem of stressing peace negotiations with the Palestinians as one of the four most compelling factors spurring their collaboration and dominating their goals.
debkafile’s political sources disclose that the prime minister has handed Mofaz the task of breaking down Palestinian resistance to peace talks after nearly two years, so long as he and Netanyahu are of one mind on how to proceed. At their press conference, the Kadima leader stated his party is committed to the concept of a democratic Jewish Israel willing to accept territorial compromise in return for peace with security.

Our Washington sources see this as part of the deal forged between the two men whereby Mofaz is committed to back Netanyahu on Iran while gaining the prime minister’s support on the Palestinian issue. In this, Mofaz is additionally motivated to seek success where former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni failed three years ago when she served as foreign minister.

3.  A third view in Washington homes in on the changing face of Israeli politics. One American strategist opined that Israel is undergoing a historic sea change: Reform of the governing and political systems which heads their new coalition’s agenda has the potential for eclipsing the many small and fringe political groupings which for nearly seven decades have kept the political scene unstable and foreshortened the life of most governments. ”The right reform program could leave Israel and its parliament with just three or four major political blocs, center, right, religious and Arab. “
Netanyahu appears to have taken the first step towards introducing a survivable centrist bloc, although every attempt in the past has foundered. Success would thrust the rightist groupings into a separate corner of the political map in opposition to his broad-based ruling coalition.

Quietly, underwater, Israel is turning into a maritime power like the United States and Russia, with an armada of advanced submarines. Germany recently agreed to provide Israel with a sixth Dolphin submarine; the Jewish state already has three. Two more will be arriving this and next year, and then the sixth one will come.

Germany also agreed to subsidize the sixth submarine, as it did with the previous ones. The first two were given to Israel for free; the Germans paid for half of the third one, and will pay for one third of the next three. In an era where the Germans are cutting back their own military because of economic hardship, this is not a trivial matter.

Germany may later sell Israel more advanced submarines of this type, and Israel is indeed interested in building a fleet of 10 submarines, which will secure its power for dozens of years to come.

The cost of every submarine is some $500M dollars, but the price may rise to $850M. Israel presented special demands for its subs and installed advanced, secret systems in them. The sixth submarine will be the most advanced and capable of staying underwater the longest.
IDF submarine in Haifa (Photo: IDF Spokesman’s Office)

The IDF’s Navy is undergoing a significant conceptual change: From serving as a border guard (which is also an important duty,) it’s shifting into Israel’s and the IDF’s strategic arm, no less so than the Air Force. Our submarines can reach any area of the world, and most certainly in this region, and our enemies do not have a reasonable response for the time being.

Best investment in peace

No regional state can afford to purchase such weapons. A few years ago it was reported that the Egyptians were also interested in acquiring Dolphin submarines from Germany. Egypt’s subs are outdated, and Cairo became anxious because of Israel’s dominance in deep water, which the Egyptians have no response for. However, negotiations did not advance, and today Cairo’s military regime has no money for such subs.

Meanwhile, the Iranians are monitoring with concern the German reports about the provision of three more subs to Israel, knowing Tehran has no response for this either. In order to show they possess an alternative, Iran’s outdated subs have been recently traveling to the Red Sea as provocation vis-à-vis the long-range Israeli presence. This is also the reason why an Iranian vessel recently crossed through the Suez Cannel en route to the Mediterranean: In order to show that Iran is a superpower after all.

Sun Tzu, who wrote The Art of War, already taught us how to produce deterrence: If the enemy estimates that it will suffer grave damage should it attack you, it will curb itself. And this is the significance of the submarines: Iran could theoretically strike Israel with missiles, yet it knows, according to foreign reports, that Tehran may pay an existential price. Even if Israel’s offensive and defensive capabilities are destroyed, the blow against Iran shall arrive from the sea – and it will most certainly arrive.

If Iran realizes that it will have to pay a terrible price, it won’t attack. And indeed, global media outlets are reporting that an Israeli submarine constantly sails near Iran’s shores. This is deterrence. Once Israel will possess six submarines, and possible more, it will signify Israeli control over a huge area.

While submarines are a powerful weapon of war, Israel’s subs are in fact the surest guarantee for maintaining Mideastern stability and order. The subs guarantee that the risk of war will decline, rather than grow. With such power, Israel is the guardian of the sea and of stability in our region, and this is the best investment in regional peace.

The IDF has issued emergency call up orders to six reserve battalions in light of new dangers on the Egyptian and Syrian borders. And the Knesset has given the IDF permission to summon a further 16 reserve battalions if necessary, Israeli media reported on Wednesday.

An IDF spokesperson said intelligence assessments called for the deployment of more soldiers. An army statement highlighted last August’s infiltration from the Sinai north of Eilat in which eight Israelis were killed, and said the subsequent division of that area into two distinct military zones necessitated additional manpower.

According to 2008′s Reserve Duty Law, combat soldiers can be called for active reserve duty once every three years, and for short training sessions during the other two. Rising tensions between Israel and Egypt and the ongoing unrest in Syria caused the army to ask the Knesset for special permission to call up more soldiers, more often.

The Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee approved the request recently, enabling the IDF to summon up to 22 battalions for active duty for the second time in three years. Already, the army has called up six of them.

“This signifies that the IDF regards the Egyptian and Syrian borders as the potential source of a greater threat than in the past,” the former deputy chief of staff, Dan Harel, said on Wednesday night.

“The army needs a better ‘answer’ than in the past to the threat,” he said, citing Egypt’s deteriorating control over the Sinai, marked by an upsurge in Bedouin smuggling of weapons and other goods. He also spoke of the growing threat of terrorism from Sinai, as exemplified by last August’s infiltration.

The Syrian situation was also highly combustible, Harel said, “and it could explode at any moment… and pose a direct challenge to us.”

Maariv said the army had to decide whether to cancel training sessions for enlisted soldiers or to summon additional reserve units, and it chose the latter; canceling training would mean soldiers would not be prepared in the case of an all-out war.

The IDF spokesperson said all the letters summoning soldiers for reserve duty were sent after the IDF received the approval of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee for the larger call-up.

One of the reservists summoned told Maariv he hadn’t expected his call-up letter until next year. Leaving home for more than three weeks is something you have to prepare for, he noted.

Activists from the Reserve Soldiers Forum said they were disappointed time and again by the way the IDF treated its reserve soldiers. The law was supposed to help reservists, but it has been repeatedly bypassed and ignored, they said. “At the end, all that will remain of the law will be its title.”

Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak offered the view this week that the next round of Six-Power talks with Iran taking place on May 23 in Baghdad would lead nowhere, throwing cold water on the current optimism. As for US media reports of a lessening in war tensions over Iran because of the internal debate in Israel over an independent attack,  they were soon overtaken by significant military steps embarked on Tuesday, May 1, by the US, Israel and Iran.
The large-scale Israel Defense Forces war game on the borders of Syria (Golan) and Lebanon was quickly followed by naval drills along Iran’s southern Persian Gulf coast by its border guards. Tehran was making good on the policy agreed with Syrian and Hizballah allies in early 2011 to counter any Western or Israel military movement in the region with a comparable response.

Israeli army spokesmen were cagey about the scale and nature of the exercise beyond preparing people living in the north for heavy military traffic on regional highways and the sounds of gunshots and explosions.
debkafile’s military sources disclose that the IDF drilled a strengthened, proactive presence in the North to meet al Qaeda’s looming presence and expanding operations next door, especially in Syria, and the threat of the Syrian civil war spilling over into Lebanon.

Monday, Israel started building a defensive wall 10-meter high, 2 kilometer-long along its border with Lebanon to protect the Israeli population and highways in northern Galilee from sniper fire coming from the Lebanese village of Kfar Kila in the Hizballah-dominated south. According to intelligence received, the Lebanese Shiite Hizballah plans to lash out against Israel in the hope of recovering its waning popular support as a result of its tight bonds with the hated Bashar Assad. Snipers are to pick off Israelis in cross-border fire and so provoke a major firestorm that will take the world’s attention away from the savagery in Syria.
Just as Israel estimates that the Galilee Panhandle and Golan could become flashpoints for exchanges of cross-border fire, so too Iran is taking into account that an operation to destroy its nuclear facilities may also entail landings on its southern coast by American and Israel special forces, and maybe others too.

Gen. Hossein Zolfaqari, Commander of the Iranian Border Guards, was more forthcoming about the exercise he is leading than Israel’s army spokesmen. He announced that the naval maneuver codenamed “Fajr” would exercise the latest tactics in border protection with the participation of the border guard units of the provinces of Bushehr (site of Iran’s only nuclear reactor and parts of its uranium enrichment facilities), the Persian Gulf Kish Island (where big Revolutionary Guards bases at situated),  Hormozgan (near the Revolutionary Guards main headquarters at Bandar Abbas) as well as Khuzestan and  Sistan and Balochestan, Iran’s biggest oil regions.

Very much on the offensive, Tehran Monday claimed to have developed the technological expertise for “redirecting enemy missiles to a target which we will determine,” in the words of Brig. Farzad Ismaili, commander of the Khatam-ol-Anbiya (Last of the Prophets) Air Base. “This is the capability of electronic warfare in which it is we who program the enemy missile,” he boasted.
There was also an outpouring of comment from Tehran about last week’s deployment of US F-22 Raptors in the UAE’s Al Dhafra Air Base opposite Iran’s southern shores. One spokesman said they posed no danger to Iran and had been moved in for “psychological warfare;” another that they “threatened regional security” and Gulf nations should not allow foreign armies to take up position on their shores.

A week after the F-22 squadron was deployed in the Gulf, Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, special assistant to President Obama and senior director for European affairs at the National Security Council, disclosed Monday that the completion of the initial phase of the US-backed missile network in Europe would be announced at the NATO summit meeting in Chicago on May 20.
She added that additional work is underway in the next phase of the network, designed for protecting Europe and the Middle East from Iranian ballistic missile attack.

The chronology is significant: The announcement that the US-led missile shield has gone operational will be made three days before the Six Powers and Iran resume nuclear negotiations in Baghdad. 
Far from reducing war tensions over Iran, America has tossed the military ball into the Iranian court.

Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu acted Thursday, April 26, to correct the damaging impression of divided and uncertain perceptions of the Iranian nuclear threat left by statements delivered in the last two days by himself and Defense Minster Ehud Barak.
Israel’s chief of staff Gen. Benny Gantz rallied to the task with an unambiguous comment that “other countries have readied their armed forces for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear sites to keep Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The military force is ready. Not only our forces but other forces as well,” he said without elaborating.

“We all hope it will not be necessary to use this force, but we are absolutely sure of its existence.”
debkafile reports from Washington that Gen. Gantz’s words were seen in US official circles as the strongest affirmation yet from Jerusalem that Israel has partners for a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.
It was also an attempt by the chief of staff to erase the question mark he placed in a previous comment over Iran’s resolve to attain a nuclear weapon.

Wednesday, April 25, debkafile reported widespread criticism on the Israeli street and in military circles of the mixed and conflicting messages coming from top officials with regard to the Iranian peril. Netanyahu also responded to the criticism in person by declaring in a TV interview, “Iran hasn’t stopped its program …the centrifuges are spinning as we speak.”

Iran says that Egypt is becoming more like Iran, and the Egyptian military says nothing. The Muslim Brotherhood says that Egypt should become more like Iran, and the Egyptian military says nothing. But when Israel says that Egypt is becoming more like Iran, the Egyptian military threatens to take action against Israel. Quite telling, isn’t it? …

By Elhanan Miller, The Times of Israel – “In remarks apparently directed at Israel, Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi, the head of Egypt’s Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) and the country’s de facto leader, threatened on Monday to thwart any foreign aggression against Egypt. He was speaking in the wake of reports, widely covered in the Egyptian media, that Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has warned of an imminent military threat emanating from Egypt.

‘Our borders are constantly burning, but we do not attack any neighboring country but only protect our borders,’ Tantawi told Egyptian press during a live ammunition maneuver in the Sinai Peninsula titled ‘Nasr 7.’ ‘If anyone comes close to Egypt’s border, we will break their leg. Therefore, our forces must be in a perpetual state of alert.’

A second senior military figure, Major General Muhammad Higazi, commander of Egypt’s Second Field Army, also issued a tacit threat, warning that potential aggressors should ‘reconsider before thinking of attacking any part of Egypt’s territory.’

In Jerusalem, the Foreign Ministry sought to calm the dispute. ‘The foreign minister was interviewed today on two Israeli radio stations,’ a spokesman said on Monday evening, ‘and he made it very clear that both sides have a clear interest in keeping the peace agreement.’

On Sunday, the Hebrew daily Maariv reported that Lieberman recently sent a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, warning him about a potential threat from Egypt and requesting that Israel’s southern command be reinforced by three military divisions. ‘The Egyptian issue is much more disturbing than the Iranian problem,’ Lieberman was reported to have said during closed discussions on the topic…

Foreign Minister Muhammad Amr asked his ambassador in Tel Aviv to inquire about statements comparing the Egyptian threat to that of Iran, establishment daily Al-Ahram reported Monday.

‘[The Egyptian ambassador] will convey Egypt’s bewilderment at the publication of such words, attributed to a senior official in the Israeli government,’ read a statement issued by Egypt’s Foreign Ministry.

According to Maariv, Lieberman also criticized the fighting capabilities of the seven battalions Egypt sent to the Sinai recently to combat al-Qaeda operatives in the peninsula. The minister could not rule out the possibility that Egypt will divert more substantial military forces to the Sinai following the election of a new president in June, in violation of the 1979 peace treaty with Israel, Maariv reported.”