Category Archive: Israel

Apr 04

Turkey’s Erdogan: Israeli strike on Iran would devastate Mideast

 

An Israeli strike against Iran would have “disastrous” consequences, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying on Saturday, adding the world remains silent on Israel’s reported nuclear armament while threatening Iran over its peaceful program.

The comments, made to reporters while making the journey back from an official visit to Iran, came after on Wednesday the Turkish PM said that “no one has the right to impose anything on anyone with regards to nuclear energy, provided that it is for peaceful purposes.” “Everyone with commonsense opposes nuclear weapons,” Erdogan was quoted as saying by Turkish newspaper Today’s Zaman.

Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Erdogan was quoted by the Turkish daily Hurriyet as warning against the “disastrous” outcome of a possible Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying: “The entire region would be devastated if Israel strikes Iran.”

The Turkish premier, who indicated he shared his concerns regarding the consequences of an Israeli attack with U.S. President Barack Obama, said that a regional war triggered by such a move “would not end up like the war between U.S. and Iraq. Israel should not attack Iran.”

Erdogan also criticized the international community for keeping mum on Israel’s alleged nuclear weapons, while threatening Iran over what he said was a peaceful nuclear program.

“Israel has between 250 to 300 nuclear warheads. Nobody is discussing that,” Erdogan said, adding: “Iran says they would not produce nuclear weapons. They are saying that they would produce a specific amount of enriched uranium rods and stop after that.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said that Iran expects to reopen talks with world powers that could defuse mounting tensions over its disputed nuclear program on April 13.

Turkey has offered to host the talks and the location will be decided in the next few days, Salehi said.

The major nations are keen to get Iran to enter talks on curbing its uranium enrichment program, which the West suspects is aimed at developing a nuclear weapons capability but Tehran says is peaceful.

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/04/04/turkeys-erdogan-israeli-strike-on-iran-would-devastate-mideast/

Mar 31

NOW RUSSIA WANTS “IN” ON ISRAEL’S NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY: And Israel proposes selling its natural gas to Arab neighbors to encourage peace

Joel Rosenberg:

>> UPDATE: New poll finds that 77% of Israelis see Iran nuclear threat as an existential threat….65% think the price Israel would have to pay for living under the shadow of the Iranian nuclear bomb is higher than the price it would pay for attacking Iran’s nuclear capability…..60% agree that the only way to stop Iran’s nuclear program is by a military attack….66% believe in the IDF’s ability to damage Iran’s nuclear program substantially.

——————————————-

Two news stories have intrigued me in light of recent geopolitical events and Bible prophecy:

1.) RUSSIA WANTS “IN” ON ISRAEL’S NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY – “Russia’s Gazprom, the world’s biggest energy conglomerate, is reportedly sending  top executives to Israel to discuss a partnership in the country’s offshore gas  fields, a move likely to heighten tension over an energy bonanza in the eastern  Mediterranean,” reports UPI. “The Russians reportedly are interested in a partnership in the Leviathan  field, the biggest gas zone found so far in Israel’s exclusive economic zone. It  contains an estimated 16 trillion cubic feet of gas. The next biggest field is  Tamar, which contains an estimated 8 tcf. Officials in Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s  office say the discoveries could contain double the volume currently listed.  They said the known reserves are worth $100 billion-$130 billion. Israel’s gas fields account for only a fraction of the energy riches believed  to lie in the Levant Basin that stretches from Syria through Lebanon, Israel,  the Gaza Strip and Egypt and includes the waters of the island of Cyprus. he U.S. Geological Service reported in 2010 that the region contains around  122 tcf of natural gas as well as 1.7 billion barrels of oil….The team from Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly….produces 94  percent of Russia’s gas.” Is this a reason Vladimir Putin wants to visit Israel in June?

2.) ISRAEL PROPOSES SELLING SOME OF ITS NATURAL GAS TO ARAB NEIGHBORS TO ENCOURAGE PEACE – “Israel is willing to sell some of its new natural gas bonanza to Arab neighbors, in the hope this will improve relations in the troubled region, the country’s energy minister said on Wednesday,” Reuters reports. “Gas production is set to soar in Israel following the discovery of some of the world’s largest offshore reserves. If the country decides later this year to sell some of its future gas production abroad, it will want neighboring Jordan and the Palestinians to be among its first customers, Israeli Energy Minister Uzi Landau told Reuters. ’We definitely have an interest to promote that as much as we can… I see that as something important to promote peace,’ Landau said in an interview on the sidelines of an energy conference in Athens. ’We all wish to get off the hook of the oil lords in the world… it’s not just Westerners that are hit by that – also Muslim countries that have no oil are hit,’ Landau said.”

These developments have intrigued me because they are similar to the “Oil For Peace” or “Economic Growth For Peace” scenario that my lead character, Jon Bennett, pursued in my first three novels, The Last Jihad, The Last Days, and The Ezekiel Option, and that I describe in more detail in my first non-fiction book,Epicenter. In the novels, Bennett and his global hedge fund invest billions in a massive discovery of oil and natural gas in Israel and off the coast of Israel and Gaza. The partnership in drilling, refining and shipping of such petroleum leads to a peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinians, but also sets into a motion a Russian-Iranian-Turkish alliance against Israel and eventually the fulfillment of the prophecies of the “War of Gog and Magog” as described in the prophecies of Ezekiel 38-39. In the non-fiction book, I explain the prophetic basis I used to write the novels. Now the increasingly intriguing question is whether these ancient prophecies are beginning to come to pass, or at least whether the pieces are moving into place for the prophecy to be fulfilled in the near future.

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/31/now-russia-wants-in-on-israels-natural-gas-industry-and-israel-proposes-selling-its-natural-gas-to-arab-neighbors-to-encourage-peace/

Mar 31

Attacking Iran: Did US just torpedo Israeli deal for a base in Azerbaijan?

Israel is developing a ‘secret staging ground’ in Azerbaijan for a possible attack on Iran, reports Foreign Policy magazine. US officials aren’t happy with that, and may have leaked the story.

 

The three-way tension between the United States, Israel, and Iran became tenser this week with a widely cited report that Israel is developing a “secret staging ground” in Iran’s neighbor to the north – Azerbaijan – for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

 

Quoting unnamed senior US diplomats and military intelligence officials, a lengthy article in Foreign Policy magazine asserts that “Israel has recently been granted access to airbases on Iran’s northern border.”

 

“The Israelis have bought an airfield,” a senior administration official is quoted as saying, “and the airfield is called Azerbaijan.”

 

Why would US officials be talking about this? Likely to slow down any rush to war in an already volatile region, some speculate.

 

“I think this leak today is part of the administration’s campaign against an Israeli attack,” former US diplomat John Bolton said Thursday on Fox News. “Clearly, this is an administration-orchestrated leak,” Mr. Bolton said, adding, “It’s just unprecedented to reveal this kind of information about one of your own allies.”

 

The challenge for Israel in planning such a strike is the long distance to potential targets – some 2,000 miles round-trip – for its F-15 and F-16 fighters. Planning for such strikes always involves tradeoffs between fuel and bombs.

 

Bases in nearby Azerbaijan (including abandoned former Soviet airfields) could be used for landing and refueling after any strike, allowing Israeli jets to carry more ordnance. Such airfields also could be a staging point for search-and-rescue helicopters that might be necessary to recover downed Israeli pilots. They also could be used to launch drone aircraft for bomb damage assessment once any strike is concluded.

 

Israel and Azerbaijan have developed an economic military relationship over the years.

 

Israel buys oil from Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan recently agreed to buy $1.6 billion in military hardware from Israel, including drones, antiaircraft, and missile-defense systems.

 

This week’s report of a possible basing agreement with Israel does nothing to improve the relationship between neighbors Azerbaijan and Iran.

 

Tehran has accused Azerbaijan of working with Israel’s spy services suspected of assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists, and individuals accused of plotting terrorist attacks with Iran have been arrested in Azerbaijan.

 

For their part, officials in Azerbaijan deny granting aircraft landing rights to Israel combat aircraft.

 

“This information is absurd and groundless,” defense ministry spokesman Teymur Abdullayev told Agence France Presse (AFP).

 

“We have stated on numerous occasions and we reiterate that there will be no actions against Iran … from the territory of Azerbaijan,” presidential official Ali Hasanov told journalists in Baku, AFP reported.

 

So far, there’s been no official comment on the Foreign Policy article by Israeli officials, who may be just as happy to increase the psychological pressure on Iran.

 

Early this month, President Obama made clear his position on Iran’s nuclear potential, both in meetings with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and in his speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the prominent pro-Israel lobbying organization.

 

“Iran’s leaders should understand that I do not have a policy of containment,” Obama told AIPAC. “I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

 

“I will take no options off the table, and I mean what I say,” Obama said, adding for dramatic effect, “There should not be a shred of doubt by now: when the chips are down, I have Israel’s back.”

Still, the US continues to act as a diplomatic brake of sorts on any rush by Israel to attack Iran. Which may be why John Bolton – a noted hawk who served as UN ambassador in the most recent Bush administration – could be right when he says that administration officials leaked their concerns about any basing agreement between Israel and Azerbaijan.

“We’re watching what Iran does closely,” one of the US intelligence sources was quoted as saying in the Foreign Policy article. “But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.”

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/31/attacking-iran-did-us-just-torpedo-israeli-deal-for-a-base-in-azerbaijan/

Mar 28

Officials: Israel ready for ‘Global March to J’lem’

Israel is prepared to handle this week’s “Global March to Jerusalem,” officials said on Sunday, as organizers plan a multi-pronged rush on the country’s borders to mark the 36th anniversary of Land Day on Friday.

Organizers of the event – known as “GMJ” – say they are planning peaceful marches on the Israeli border in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt, at checkpoints in the West Bank and at entrances to the Gaza Strip.

 “Our aim is to end the Zionist policies of apartheid, ethnic cleansing and Judaization, which all harm the people, land and sanctity of Jerusalem,” they wrote on the event’s official homepage. “The GMJ is comprised of a diverse coalition of Palestinian, Arab and international activists who are united in the struggle to liberate the holy city of Jerusalem (the city of peace) from illegal Zionist occupation.”

Organizers said processions would also be organized in Arab and Muslim capitals worldwide, and in front of Israeli embassies in a number of unspecified countries.

Friday marks 36 years since the first Land Day, when tens of thousands of Israeli Arabs – and Palestinians marching in solidarity in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and Lebanon – rallied against government plans to take control of hundreds of hectares of land in the Galilee and the Negev. Six Israeli Arabs were killed and around 100 were wounded in the protests.

On Sunday, officials said security forces had been given refresher training on non-lethal crowd dispersal techniques. They said border police have been put on alert in Israel and the West Bank, and additional officers deployed to the northern borders to reinforce IDF units.

“We’ve been through this before,” a security source said of Friday’s planned marches. Last May, 13 people were killed while trying to breach the Syrian and Lebanese borders with Israel on “Nakba Day,” the annual date when Palestinians mourn the Jewish state’s creation in 1948. The following month 12 people were injured on the Syrian frontier on “Naksa Day,” marking Arab defeat and territorial losses in the 1967 Six Day War.

Another official said all necessary precautions were being taken, and that Jordan and Egypt had an interest in keeping their borders quiet.

The situation in Lebanon is less clear. One Israeli official said marchers would likely proceed as far as Beaufort – a Crusader castle several kilometers north of the border – while another warned that Iranian involvement in Lebanon’s south means no scenario could be ruled out.

Earlier this week, the Israel-based Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center reported that Iran is the primary force behind the initiative, both directly and through proxies such as Hezbollah. In February, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei described the Global March as an expression of Iran’s policy to strengthen “resistance operations” against Israel.

This month, the GMJ website claimed a Jewish-Iranian umbrella group had thrown its support behind the marches. “We the Iranian Jewry alongside the strata of Iranian people, under the guidance of the leadership, announce that we shall fight against imperialism and Zionism until all the lawful rights of the valiant nation of Palestine are met,” the Society of Iranian Jews was quoted as saying.

“We the Iranian Jewry would also like to show the disassociation of the anti-humanitarian works committed by the occupying Israeli regime and their usurping army with the commandments of divine laws of Prophet Moses (P.B.U.H). We would like to show our support with all those who desire the lawful rights of the valiant nation of Palestine,” the group said.

The statement was signed by Ciamak Mordesadegh – who holds the one Iranian parliamentary seat reserved for Jews – and Rabbi Mashallah Golestaninejad, a Jewish leader in the country.

DEBKAfile reported on Friday that Hussein Sheikholeslam – an Iranian parliamentarian it describes as one of the march’s organizers – instructed Jewish leaders to provide 10 men aged 18 to 22 to be given “the honor” of acting as the vanguard in breaking through the Lebanese-Israeli border fence. The report – which could not be independently verified – quoted Iranian sources as saying authorities may have demanded the inclusion of Jewish marchers so Israeli soldiers would be constrained from opening fire.

In January, the GMJ’s International Central Committee held its first and only meeting in Beirut. The committee consists of anti-Israel activists from the Palestinian Authority, Jordan and several other Arab, Muslim and Western states.

The panel includes one Israeli citizen – Muhammad Zeidan, chairman of the Higher Arab Monitoring Committee, a nongovernmental organization representing Israeli Arabs at the national level. Zeidan sailed on the Mavi Marmara in the 2010 Gaza protest flotilla, in which nine people were killed by Israel Navy commandos while trying to run the Israeli blockade.

One of the GMJ’s major themes is what it describes as Israel’s “Judaization” of Jerusalem.

“Over the last several years Zionist efforts to ‘Judaize’ the city have quickened pace in an attempt to erase Jerusalem’s physical, cultural and spiritual characteristics,” organizers wrote, adding that such efforts have been aimed at changing the city’s demographics “from a Palestinian to a Jewish majority.”

The GMJ website refers to all of Israel as occupied land.

“Massive marches will be organized in Palestine (the 1948 seizures, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip) towards Jerusalem or to the nearest point to it,” it says.

The logo on the homepage features all of Mandatory Palestine, and is set against a banner showing Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock and Church of the Holy Sepulchre. The Muslim and Christian holy places are set against the backdrop of the Mount of Olives, but the sprawling 3,000-year-old Jewish cemetery with its 150,000 tombstones is absent, replaced by a barren hillside.

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/28/officials-israel-ready-for-global-march-to-jlem/

Mar 24

‘Israel warned neighbors: Don’t march to Jerusalem’

Following the deadly clashes last year during the Naksa and Nakba marches to its northern border, Israel issued a stern warning to Arab countries and Palestinians to refrain from approaching the border.

London based newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat reported Friday that the warning was issued in reference to the “Universal Jerusalem March” planned for next Friday to commemorate “Land Day.”

According to sources, Israel reiterated it would treat anyone who approaches the border as an infiltrator, and will act against them decisively. The report said Israel claims the march is organized by hostile elements. In a message to Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the Hamas government in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, Israel called on Arabs not to allow escalation in the area by allowing marches to the borders.

Security sources confirmed such a message was delivered to the Palestinian Authority. According to them, coordination talks were held with Palestinian security services, with the purpose of avoiding violent riots. Similar talks were also conducted last year before the Nakba day events. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs refused to comment.

The organizers plan to send convoys of vehicles to approach Israel’s borders simultaneously from Arab countries and from PA-controlled territories. More than 700 institutions from 64 states are involved directly or indirectly in planning the rally, said the organizers. At the same time of the march, protests are planned outside Israeli embassies in Europe and Arab countries.

It is estimated that due to the fragile political situation in Egypt and Syria, these countries will not authorize marches to the border, but preparations in other countries are underway. In recent days the organizers are using social networks to recruit more protesters to the march.

One of the Facebook pages promoting the event claimed that the purpose of the march is to reach Jerusalem and al-Aqsa mosque. Later it was amended to Jerusalem or “any point closest to it”.

One of the event organizers, Palestinian Said Yakin, said the event is meant to be a non-violent protest that will include parliament members, citizens and religious figures from all over the world – including Jews.

“We will not protest violently” Yakin told Ynet earlier this week. “We don’t expect the IDF to shoot at protesters, just as it didn’t open fire at a million Israeli protesters during this summer’s social protest.”

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/24/israel-warned-neighbors-dont-march-to-jerusalem/

Mar 24

EGYPT IS LOOKING TO GET COZY WITH IRAN

Israel is now completely surrounded by it’s enemies. We need to be looking up for His Return more than ever.

– Although Saudi Arabia had good relations for more than 30 years with Egypt under now-ousted President Hosni Mubarak, the kingdom is warily watching political developments in Cairo as the Muslim Brotherhood shows increasing strength, according to a report from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.

As a consequence, Egypt is leaning more toward a strategic relationship with Iran. Closer Egyptian ties with Iran also were underscored by Egyptian parliamentary member Mohamed Abu Hamed, who resigned recently from the Free Egyptians Party, or FEP, which has enthusiastically embraced closer strategic relations with Tehran even though it opposes the Brotherhood.

The Free Egyptian Party was formed last year in the aftermath of the ouster of Mubarak. It has swiftly risen in popularity in opposition to the Freedom and Justice Party, or FJP of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The FEP, regarded as more liberal, democratic and secular politically, is dedicated to promoting economic and social development.

“I think that there is no obstacle in this regard of expanding strategic relations with Iran,” Hamed said.

Under Mubarak, the Brotherhood was illegal. The Saudis are concerned about the Brotherhood because it seeks to establish Islamic rule that would replace the Saudi Arabian monarchy.

Now, Hamed of the FEP, while opposed to the Brotherhood, as are the Sunni Saudis, welcomes a strategic tie with Shia Iran, a position which the Saudis oppose.

During Mubarak’s presidency, Egypt’s ties with Iran also were severed. In welcoming closer relations with Iran, Hamed has criticized Egypt’s relations with Israel.

In what appears to be a cross-spectrum of political sentiment in Egypt as a result of the ouster of Mubarak, there appears to be a desire to normalize ties with Tehran, believing that resumption of relations between the two Muslim countries will remove many controversies and differences.

“Rapprochement with Iran is not just a strategic issue with mere political roots, but I believe companionship with Iran would lead to the settlement of many disagreements and differences,” said Ayman Nour, chairman of the el-Ghad, or Future party.

“Although there are also international sensitivities, Egypt’s actual interests depend on resumption and normalization of these ties, which means investment and utilization of the two sides’ capabilities and regional cooperation, while respecting each other’s specific interests,” he said.

While the other Arab countries in the region are concerned about the growing influence of Iran, especially its ties to their Shi’ite minorities, Nour said that his party is not afraid of Iran’s role and influence in the region.

 

 

 

 

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/24/egypt-is-looking-to-get-cozy-with-iran/

Mar 21

Experts: Israel should not export natural gas

In order to maintain Israel’s energy security for the foreseeable future, the government must refrain from exporting its newfound natural gas supply, as well as ensure that these reserves are not the country’s sole source of electricity, experts said at a forum on Sunday.

The conference, titled “Energy Security and Energy Strategies in Europe and Israel,” was held on Sunday at the Sde Boker campus of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, organized jointly by the university’s Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research and German political foundation Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.

Researchers from both Israel and Europe gathered to discuss ways to guarantee that both will be able to maintain sustainable electricity supplies in an era in which oil resources are being depleted – and are increasingly expensive. Some of the key elements suggested were renewable energies, nuclear energy and with regard to Israel in particular – natural gas and oil shale.

“For many, many years we were almost totally dependent on importation,” said Dr. Shlomo Wald, chief scientist of the Energy and Water Ministry. “Now we are facing a new era – where for the first time we have the chance to get some energy independence, which is a crucial element in the energy security.”

Wald was referring specifically to natural gas, of which 750 billion cubic meters have already been found in the Tamar and Leviathan basins, with an expected 450 more in the vicinity.

“All the people say we are the new ‘natural gas princess,’” Wald said. “Are they right?” Not entirely, he argued.

Russia, for example, has around 44,000 billion cubic meters of natural gas and Iran has about 29,000, while Algeria, Egypt and Qatar all have in the thousands or tens of thousands.

”So first of all, be modest,” Wald said. “We have only 1,200 billion cubic meters, we shall never be a player of the global market.”

Therefore, he argued, rather than exporting the gas so that sellers can make money faster, the gas should stay within Israel and help maintain the country’s energy security for the next few decades. By 2040, the country will consume about 600 billion cubic meters, and even if explorers locate the rest of the 1,200 billion cubic meters, it will be exhausted completely by 2060, according to Wald.

“If we do not export, we should at least have a time to develop industry and get some security of supply for half a century,” he said.

Exporting the gas would be nothing less than a “disaster,” in Wald’s opinion “It’s a mistake, it’s against energy security,” he said. “It’s against energy independence.”

Wald explained that within Israel, natural gas will need to make up a significant chunk of the energy market at this point – as renewables will never exceed 30 percent of the total energy market in the near future. Israel’s current electricity usage is 60 terawatt-hours per year, with demand increasing at 2 terawatt-hours per year.

While the prospective amount of renewable energy available is about 75 terawatthours per year, its conceivable installation rate is only about 0.9 terawatt-hours per year, he said.

Although the newly abundant natural gas supply will be crucial to maintaining Israel’s energy independence and security, certain precautions must also be taken, particularly if the government intends to supply 80% of the country’s electricity through natural gas by 2020, according to Dr. Amit Mor, CEO of the Eco Energy consulting firm.

“To base a strategic commodity like electricity on just one pipeline is a major problem,” Mor said. “That’s why there is a need to insure the supplies of electricity.”

In an area that is well within the reach of Gaza’s rockets, the pipeline to Tamar and Leviathan must have multiple entry points as well as backup fuel sources, he said. An LNG regasification unit (liquified natural gas in a floating storage and regasification system) that is currently in the works is crucial, and it should remain a permanent backup source rather than simply a temporary solution to bridge energy gaps, Mor argued.

The Israeli market’s security could also benefit from a shift in fueling transportation with natural gas and renewable energy, and in 20 to 30 years, Israel will also need to consider constructing nuclear energy facilities, he added.

Such an approach – to use nuclear power – will be necessary all over the world, and is much less dangerous than the carbon dioxide currently being released en masse by fossil fuels, said Dr. Ari Rabl, a consultant on environmental impacts and a former senior scientist at the Center Energétique et Procédés of the École des Mines in Paris.

While nuclear waste can be managed safely by future generations, they cannot do anything about the carbon dioxide being pumped into the air, Rabl explained.

The cost of a nuclear accident – a rare occurrence when proper precautions are taken – is about .22 euro cents per kilowatthour, while the cost of air pollution and global warming is about 1.40 euro cents per kilowatt-hour, he said.

Another way to help secure Israel’s energy security would be creating oil from the Shfela region’s copious amounts of oil shale, which can now be heated in situ using a process that does not harm the aquifer, according to Dr. Harold Vinegar, chief scientist of Israel Energy Initiatives – the company responsible for the current oil shale explorations.

Natural gas can also be used to heat the shale, in a process where every $1 of methane used creates $23 worth of product, Vinegar argued. Meanwhile, Israel has about 250 barrels worth of oil shale in its underground reserves, he said.

“There’s an amazing synergy between the discovery of the vast amounts of natural gas in Israel and the even more vast amounts of oil shale in Israel,” Vinegar said. “The combination of abundant natural gas and oil from oil shale can make Israel completely energy independent and we should be able to do this in this decade.”

Whichever methods are undertaken to bolster Israel’s – and the Europe’s – energy supplies and security, simple conservation methods will not be enough to satisfy everincreasing needs, Rabl argued.

“The best we can hope for is to more or less compensate the natural growth in demand and the growth in the economy [through conservation],” he said. “I don’t think we can get a dramatic reduction due to energy conservation.”

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/21/experts-israel-should-not-export-natural-gas/

Mar 21

EVIDENCE GROWS THAT ISRAEL IS SET FOR WAR, BUT WHAT IF RUSSIA INTERVENES?

Among them:

  1. Evidence continues to grow that Israel is set for war – Netanyahu and his cabinet are feeling increasingly confident they decisively neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat for years to come.
  2. The Obama administration doesn’t want Israel to hit Iran, at least not before the November elections — That said, the White House doesn’t appear at the moment to be threatening Israel with a cutoff of aid or other support if Israel does feel the need to strike.
  3. There are a number of reasons that could dissuade Netanyahu from ordering a strike soon, but perhaps the most intriguing X Factor at the moment is Vladimir Putin — An intriguing New York Times story over the weekend explained that for the Kremlin to raise enough money for Putin to keep his lavish campaign promises over the next few years, oil prices would need to average $150 a barrel, signficantly higher than the current $120 a barrel. One way to drive up oil prices, of course, would be to encourage or foment more tensions in the Middle East. Putin is already moving Russian forces into Syria. He’s also actively preparing to build a new regional political/military/economic alliance he calls the “Eurasian Union.” What if Russiathen  intervenes in the current standoff between Israel and Iran and signs a mutual defense treaty with Iran? What if Putin warns Israel that an attack on Iran would be regarded by the Kremlin as an attack against Russia itself. That alone would throw a monkey wrench into Netanyahu’s plans to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program with a preemptive strike. But what if Putin then went further? He could go to the U.N. in September and call for a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. He could persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program. Then, in a move similar to what President Bush demanded of Iraq in 2003, Putin could demand that Israel disclose, dismantle and discard its weapons of mass destruction within 60 or 90 days, or face an international coalition willing to force Israel to do so. This scenario — or a variation of it — would not only likely halt Israeli plans for a strike on Iran, but could actually set into motion the fulfillment of the prophecies of Ezekiel 38-39 and the “War of Gog and Magog.”

Now comes a new, must-read column by The Atlantic magazine’s Jeffrey Goldberg — one of the more insightful and connected observers of the Israeli national security scene — suggesting a growing feeling of optimism among top Israeli political leaders and generals that an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is not only doable but could be very successful. “The arguments I’ve outlined here — and those I’ll describe in my next column — all lead to a single conclusion,” reports Goldberg. “The Israeli political leadership increasingly believes that an attack on Iran will not be the disaster many American officials, and some ex-Israeli security officials, fear it will be.”

Here is a summary of Goldberg’s conclusions (hat tip to The American Interest blog) 

  • If it acts soon, Israel has the capacity to set the Iranian nuclear program back by five years.
  • There is a significant probability that a successful attack on Iran will energize Iran’s internal opposition, leading ultimately to the downfall or at least the crippling of the Iranian government.
  • President Obama will not retaliate against Israel.
  • Rather than launch massive retaliation against Israel, Iran will try to downplay the assault (as Syria and Iraq did in the past), perhaps launching only a few token missiles in response.
  • Fearing massive retaliation, Iran would not attack American ships or targets in response.

Also worth reading, however, is a far gloomier assessment of a recent U.S. national security “war game” (reported last night by the New York Times) that found an Israeli strike on Iran would only set the nuclear program back a year (not five) and would lead to a massive regional war that could leave hundreds of Americans dead. However, the war game also found that if the U.S. were drawn into the conflict and assisted the Israelis, the Iranian nuclear program could be set back an additional two years (for a total of three).

 

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/21/evidence-grows-that-israel-is-set-for-war-but-what-if-russia-intervenes/

Mar 17

Israel ultimatum: Stop the missiles by Saturday night. Hamas leader in Tehran

After five days of non-stop missile fire on a dozen towns and villages, Israel Thursday night, March 15, gave Egypt and Hamas two days to halt the shooting or else the Israeli Defense Forces would go into action against Gaza. debkafile’s military sources report that neither Egypt nor Hamas can be expected to go up against the missile shooters now.  The attacks have now been taken over from Jihad Islami by a small group of Salafi Palestinians calling itself Haraka Muhaheddin, which belongs to Jalalat, the al Qaeda roof organization in the Gaza Strip.
Most of the missiles are now coming from the Salafi concentrations in the southern part of the enclave –targeting Beersheba and Netivot Thursday morning and as night fell aimed at Ashdod, Ashkelon, Shear Hanegev and the Eshkol region. The firing escalated after Israel laid down its ultimatum
Egypt and Hamas don’t know exactly who is giving Haraka the missiles, except that they are smuggled from Sinai through tunnels managed by Iranian intelligence agents in conjunction with local al Qaeda networks.
It is highly unlikely that Hamas will venture to lay hands on these Salafi terrorists at a time when one of its top officials in Gaza, Mahmoud A-Zahar, is visiting Tehran for talks with Iranian leaders who are keen to keep the missile assaults going.
His visit marks the Hamas fundamentalists’ return to the Iranian fold – that is if they ever really left it. This, Israeli strategists have chosen to ignore and are treating Hamas as a non-participant in the missile offensive and available to help Cairo bring the terrorists to accept a ceasefire.
The sequence of events leading up to this week’s violence points to the opposite conclusion and, therefore, the probable escalation of the violence rather than a truce.

Five days before the missile fire began, on March 5, a Hamas Deputy Politburo Chief Mousa Abu Marzouk and Hizballah’s Hassan Nasrallah met in Beirut and finalized tactics for building up tensions on Israel’s borders.
Monday, March 12, Mahmoud A-Zahar was in Cairo to wind up Gaza ceasefire terms with Egyptian officials when, to their astonishment, instead of returning to Gaza, he boarded a plane to Tehran. He is still there.

And so, while the Egyptians try and reach some sort of accommodation with Hamas for a truce, Hamas itself is in close communion with the Iranians, who want to see the Israeli military stuck in a messy a showdown with the Palestinian Salafis.

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/17/israel-ultimatum-stop-the-missiles-by-saturday-night-hamas-leader-in-tehran/

Mar 15

Israel Strikes Oil Off Tel Aviv Coast

Israel has struck oil again, this time off the Tel Aviv coast. Developers maintain the find includes 100 million barrels of oil, worth $10 billion.

Modiin Energy and Adira Energy discovered an estimated 128 million barrels of oil and 1.8 trillion cubic feet of gas in their Gabriella and Yitzhak licenses, in shallow water less than 15 miles northwest of Tel Aviv.

Officials called the find “significant” and added, “Surveys conducted in recent months found oil in the target strata. The potential oil reservoir is 128 million barrels of oil, and the contingent reserves are an additional 120 million barrels.”

“Bottom line, there is oil. It’s 100 percent. Secondly, the quantities are commercial,” said Tzachi Sultan, controlling shareholder of Modiin.

The Gabriella license is near shore in shallow water. “At a time of soaring oil prices, this is good news for IDB, Modiin, Adira, said Chaim Gavriella, CEO of the IDB  holding company that owns most of Gabriella’s shares.

The oil was defined as “ high quality” and reportedly can be extracted even easier than the gas.

The amount of oil is estimated to meet Israel’s needs for 18 months, in addition to other energy finds in the Tamar and Leviathan fields off the Haifa coast. Companies developing those fields say there is enough gas and perhaps oil to turn Israel into an exporter.

Sultan said drilling will begin by the end of the year and that it will take approximately five years for the first well to start producing oil.

Adira CEO Jeffrey Walter was ecstatic. “I said that I came to find oil and gas and was laughed at. I was told that there is no oil here. They were wrong,” he told Globes.

The discoveries of oil and gas are expected to provide thousands of new jobs for engineers and others needed to work on infrastucture, and the forecast ability of Israel to be self-sufficient could eventually lead to a large decline in domestic fuel prices and a stronger shekel.

Permanent link to this article: http://discerningthetimes.me/2012/03/15/israel-strikes-oil-off-tel-aviv-coast/

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